Press Releases

Memo: Why Virginia is in Play

Posted by Greg on Monday, June 09

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                
June 9, 2008                                               

 

Memorandum

To: Interested Parties

From: Democratic Party of Virginia

Date: June 9, 2008

 

Re: Why Virginia Is In Play

John McCain travels to northern Virginia today, a region of the state where the population growth and shift in voting trends have changed the landscape statewide in favor of Democrats in recent years, putting the Commonwealth into play for the presidential election. The nation's eyes will be on Virginia this election season as the Commonwealth sits poised to support a Democrat for President for the first time in 44 years. Why such optimism that Virginia will turn blue? It helps to have a Democratic candidate who offers leadership that speaks to what we can do instead of what we can't, and who knows there's no problem we can't solve if we come together and change our politics. That's the change Democrats like Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, and Jim Webb have delivered, it's the change the American people are hungry for in the White House, and it's the change Barack Obama will deliver to Washington.

But the change in voting habits in Virginia has been taking place over the last few elections, and the trend appears set to keep moving the Old Dominion forward in November of 2008:

 

Virginians Vote for Progress Over Partisanship

  • In 2001, Virginians elected Mark Warner. Mark Warner changed Democratic electoral strategy in the Commonwealth. He competed for votes in vote-rich, Democratic-leaning northern Virginia and employed a successful rural strategy, specifically in Southwest Virginia. Running as a business leader who would bring results, Warner was able to secure 52% of the vote. [virginia.gov] Additionally, Tim Kaine was also elected Lt. Governor in 2001.
  • The Mark Warner Effect. By the time Gov. Warner left office, he had record high approval ratings; nearly 80%. Under the leadership of Gov. Mark Warner, Virginia made progress, being named the best-managed state in the nation. It set the stage for Democratic leadership that worked across party lines to get results. By the time his successor, Tim Kaine was elected four years later, it "seemed to confirm the sentiments of Virginians, the majority of whom had consistently said they were happy with the direction of the state under Warner. Kaine's effort to link himself with Warner, whose popularity has soared in his final year, appeared to work." [Washington Post, 11/09/05]
  • In, 2005 Tim Kaine wins with 52% of the vote. Despite (or perhaps because of) an 11th hour appearance by Pres. Bush, who campaigned for the Republican candidate, Tim Kaine won a majority of votes across the Commonwealth. He "won landslide victories in Democratic bastions like Alexandria, Arlington and Richmond. He also did surprisingly well in Republican strongholds like Virginia Beach and Chesapeake." [New York Times, 11/09/05] Kaine also won in the less reliably Democratic suburbs of northern Virginia like Fairfax, Loudon and Prince William County, where Bush beat Kerry by tens of thousands of votes the year before. [Washington Post, 11/09/05
  • In 2006, Virginians vote to replace an incumbent Republican U.S. Senator with Jim Webb. Using the Warner-Kaine template of competing for votes even in Republican strongholds, Jim Webb picked up the U.S. Senate seat held by George Allen. Allen didn't help himself by revealing cultural attitudes Virginians were leaving behind. Meanwhile, Webb, like Kaine before him, talked about issues traditionally championed by Republicans. Webb received almost 1.2 million votes to defeat George Allen. [cnn.com, election results]
  • In 2007, Democrats win control of State Senate and pick up more House seats. Governors Kaine and Warner raised historic amounts of money and campaigned to help legislative candidates. Kaine himself funded large-scale field efforts through the Party to help 26 races. The end result was that "Virginia Democrats wrested control of the state senate from Republicans...gaining four additional seats to secure a 21-19 majority in the chamber for the first time in a decade. The party also made historic gains in the House of Delegates and won key local races." [Washington Post, 11/7/07]

Democrats Building on Momentum in 2008

  • The 2008 primary shattered all previous records for primaries. As many Democrats turned out to vote in this year's primaries as voted for Mark Warner in 2001. While almost 980,000 voters turned out for our Democratic candidates, less than half, 487,656, turned out for the Republicans. [ washingtonpost.com]
  • Highest Ranking Republican in the House "Worried," Says McCain Will Have to "Work Hard" to Win Virginia. The highest ranking Virginia Republican in the House of Representatives, Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va) said "that Arizona Sen. John McCain, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, will have to work hard to make sure the Democratic presidential candidate doesn't win Virginia's 13 electoral votes in the fall." Cantor said he was "worried, given the track record our party has demonstrated over the past three statewide elections, we've got some work to do." [washingtonpost.com, 4/25/2008]
  • NCEC: Significant Shift in Voting Habits of Virginians. An NCEC analysis shows that the "last two election cycles have shown a significant shift in the voting habits of Virginians, making the state contentious in all races including the presidency. The increasing population of Northern Virginia (most notably in Fairfax County), and the continued evolution of the suburban and exurban vote toward Democrats (in such places as Loudoun County and Prince William County) have been essential to victories in top-of-the-ticket races in 2005 and 2006. Increased Democratic performance in suburban and exurban areas has been evident all over the country. In 2006, 16 of the 30 Democratic pickups in the House were in districts made up of suburban or exurban areas." The analysis details that:

* "Fairfax County's voting-age population grew by 33,000 people since 2000, and the county has gone from a 50/50 proposition to overwhelmingly Democratic. In 2000, Fairfax County went to George W. Bush with 49% of the vote. By 2006, Fairfax County had undergone a massive shift and as a result, Democrat Jim Webb won nearly 60 (59.5%) of the vote over incumbent George Allen. Other areas such as Arlington County, which  was already a Democratic stronghold, have seen similar surges in Democratic voting...Northern Virginia continues to expand and remains crucial to Democrats.

* "...Democratic gains are taking place in all regions of the state. Counties like Chesterfield were previously strong Republican, but have recently become battleground counties with only a slight Republican advantage. Other suburban areas, such as the city of Chesapeake have seen congruent Democratic gains."

* "Turnout is expected to increase even more in 2008, which should make the state more competitive in the presidential race than it has been in previous cycles. Mark Warner's presence on the ballot is not to be underestimated, as it will further increase Democratic turnout and aid Democratic candidates all over the ballot." [NCEC.org, 10/11/07]

 

McCain Showing Weakness in Virginia

  • McCain Stumbled With Evangelicals and Conservatives, Lost Independents. In the 2008 primary, "Huckabee's strong showing among evangelicals and conservatives demonstrated McCain's weakness with those voters and the challenge he faces to win them over before the fall election...'John McCain has got some work to do to demonstrate his conservative bona fides," said Virginia Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell, a conservative who threw his support behind McCain only'" a week before the election. "Virginia also tested McCain on his support among independents, who narrowly favored Huckabee despite McCain's strong showing with this group in other states." [washingtonpost.com, 2/12/08]
  • McCain Trailing in Recent Poll. A Survey USA poll of Virginia voters recently showed Obama beating McCain 49-42. [Survey USA, 5/22/08]
  • Virginia GOP in Disarray, "Take Over" by Far Right Bodes Poorly. The Virginia Republican "party's 'complete takeover by the far-right,' as [Larry Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics] put it, may have serious repercussions for Virginia's GOP. The growing power of the anti-tax conservatives had already alienated such moderate Republicans as former state Sen. John Chichester (R), once chairman of the Senate Finance Committee and the longest serving Republican in the upper chamber. He is now appearing in a television spot for former governor Mark Warner, the Democrats' US Senate nominee. Moreover, retiring US Sen. John Warner (R), long an outsider among his home-state Republicans, has so far declined to endorse Gilmore," the Republicans' U.S. Senate candidate. [Southern Political Report, 6/8/08]
  • Evangelicals Still Not Rallying Behind McCain.  According to a recent column by Robert Novak, McCain still "has a problem of disputed dimensions with a vital component of the conservative coalition: evangelicals" and that "[s]ome U.S. Christians are not reconciled to McCain's candidacy."  And while he is winning the evangelical base, his lead is 22 points less than Bush's advantage with evangelicals versus Kerry in 2004. [Washington Post, 5/12/08; LCG Election Monitor Blog, 6/2/08]
  • Republican Voters Looking For Alternatives.  McCain's lack of appeal to conservative voters has brought in not one, but two alternative candidates.  Bob Barr, a former Republican and Georgia Congressman, is now running for president as a Libertarian, saying that McCain is a "'status quo' candidate."  Barr also said that people voting for him "would not likely fall into the category of people who would be enthused about voting for John McCain -if such exists." Similarly, Ron Paul's continued presence in the race and support at the polls shows that many Republicans are looking for an alternative to McCain. [Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 5/13/08; cnn.com, accessed 5/13/08]

 McCain Offers Third Bush Term

  • Like Bush Before Him, McCain Uses Veterans as Props, But Votes Against Them. Having "voted for veterans funding bills only 30% of the time, according to a scorecard of roll-call votes put out by the nonpartisan Disabled Americans for America," McCain has pitted himself against the veterans community by refusing to support the 21st Century GI Bill to help veterans and service members pay for college. [time.com; 5/20/08]
  • Economy and Iraq Top Issues This Election. 56 percent of voters see the economy as the top issue this election, and 34 percent see the war in Iraq as the top issue, according to a recent LA Times/Bloomberg poll.  [LA Times/Bloomberg Poll, May 1-8, 2008] 
    • 2008 Exit Poll: Virginians View Economy Unfavorably.  According to exit polls in the Feb. 12 primaries, 53 percent of Republican voters in VA said national economic conditions were "not so good/poor" and 88 percent of Democratic voters responded the same way. [cnn.com, accessed 6/9/08]
    • McCain Is Not Trusted To Handle The Economy.  A new Reuters/Zogby poll from May shows both Obama and Clinton beating McCain when voters were asked who would better manage the economy. [Reuters, 5/21/08]
    • Americans Think McCain Is Wrong On Iraq.  In a NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, more than a third-36 percent-of respondents believe McCain has the "wrong approach" on "dealing with the situation in Iraq." [NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll, April 25-28, 2008] In a New York Times/CBS poll, 62 percent of respondents want the next President to "try to end the Iraq war within the next year or two, no matter what," something McCain has not promoted. [New York Times/CBS News Poll, April 25-29, 2008]
  • Voters Are Not Happy With the Direction of Our Country. In a Washington Post-ABC News poll, 82 percent of voters think the country "have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track"-the same track McCain would keep us on. [Washington Post-ABC News Poll, May 8-11, 2008]
  • Americans Think McCain Offers A Third Bush Term.  When asked what McCain will do if he is elected president, nearly half-48 percent-of respondents said he would "generally continue George W. Bush's policies." [New York Times/CBS News Poll, April 25-29, 2008]

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